A Warm Summer Evening, and a Big Flying Saucer....

It was a dark and stormy night - somewhere in the world; here in Oregon, it was a perfect summer evening - around seventy-five degrees and not a cloud in the sky; the sort of thing which made me ruminate about Life Beyond the Stars when I was a boy, and which invariably drew me outside with a glass of wine and a cigar in my later years.

I was on the deck outside my office near the reflecting pool when I heard the sound - a sort of grinding noise with an odd 'clank' thrown in every now-and-again; it grew louder from up-above the house, and seemed to terminate somewhere in the south-east corner of things.

I pushed myself out of my steamer-chair (never liked doing that; especially when Whatever Interrupted Me had also interrupted my 43rd reading of a Hemingway novel).

I walked around the corner; my feet making light crunchy-sounds on the gravel-path.   As the corner of the garage gave way to the vista beyond, I noticed it.

A saucer.   Damned if it wasn't a saucer -- steaming and kind of leaning to one side (must have hit a gopher-hole with one of its legs).   Trailing from one side was a wire, which I recognized as one of Comcast's.

"Shit," I said to myself.   "They probably took out my Internet."

I walked closer; glass of Temperanillo in one hand and a Hoyo De Monterey Double-Corona in the other.   I heard a whir, and a walkway gradually lowered.   Down the walkway waddled a little fellow who looked for all the world like that drunk asshole from "Little People; Big World."

I started laughing.   "Fucking Matt Roloff's takin' over Earth," I thought, laughing even harder.

"Ha-ha-ha-ha," imitated the Munchkin.

I took a big gulp of Abacela Temperanillo.  "I'm either dead where I stand, or we're going to have a nice, long talk about the Wizard of Oz," I thought.  "Might as well do this drunk."

"So, who the hell are you?"

"The - Hell - Are - You", It replied in a monotone.

"You're going to have to do better than that.   Don't you guys have a universal translator, or something?"

"Matt" (I'd already named him, absent knowing his real name) turned, looked up the ramp, and said something rapid-fire, like playing a tape-recorder backward.  Another Munchkin waddled down the stairs.

They had a brief conversation, then the second Munchkin (who looked a lot like one of the members of the Lollipop Guild, come to think of it) turned to me and said, "I am the Studier.   He is the Leader.   I can speak your - talk - rather well."

"No shit?  Well - we'll work on that.   He's the 'Leader', huh?" I pointed to "Matt".   "What's his name?"

"P'Taah"'

"Leave it to any organization, anywhere in the universe, to put an ignorant asshole in charge of things," I thought.   "Oh, well."

I took a small sip, pursed my lips, and made a noisy 'squirt' on the lawn.   "P-tooey," I said.   They looked at each other and nodded, vigorously.   Progress was being made.

"P-tooey, we wish to meet leaders of this place."

I laughed again -- they thought my name was 'P-Tooey'.  Hell; might as well go with it....

"Wait a minute.  What's your name?"

"K'Khan", said the Studier, pointing to himself with what looked like a four-fingered hand.

"I'll probably wake up in a minute.  Might as well have fun with this one," I thought.

"You guys hungry?"

"Hung-gree?", said K'Khan.   He managed to look puzzled, even to me.

"Yes.  Hungry."   I pantomimed eating; something I figured everyone - even from out-system - would understand.

"We bring our own-" he struggled for the word - "-food."

"Oh, well.  I tried.   You'd like wine.  I think."  Then, I took a good look at the saucer, trailing my Comcast cable.   I realized that Comcast would be here, even in the middle of the night, to re-run the damn thing to the house.

"Look.   I'm sort of the unofficial Mayor of Hilltop, here - but I'm gathering that's not what you're looking for.   You want the folks who run the whole damn place, right?"

"Whole - damn - place -right...." K'Khan's 'voice' trailed off in that monotone, again.

"Tell you what.  You have maps?   How'd you get here?"

"Matt" was rather upset by this time, and began berating my new buddy K'Khan.   I cut him off.

"Hey-hey-hey - uh; "Matt".  You." I pointed at him - "...you're interrupting."

He turned and glowered at me.   "Where I come from, you'd be just another asshole on Reality TV," I thought.  

"K'Khan.  Uh - I don't mean to be rude - but you have to go."

"Go?"

"Yes.  Go.  As in 'vamoose.'  Comcast is gonna be here in a few minutes; it's getting dark, my cigar's done, and my glass is empty.  You know how to find major cities?"

"Cit-tees.  Yes."  K'Khan continued, "Ship - is not - well.  Maybe two more parsecs before - repair."

"Explains the shiteatin' clank in your transmission."  (I'd always wanted to use that line, ever since I'd heard my grandfather use it when I was five.  But I digress.)

"Shit-eeetin-clank.  Do not understand."

I started laughing.  "Don't worry.  Just tell "Matt" here he's not payin' you enough.   Now -- you'll need to find a city called 'Philadelphia'.  It's east of here, not far from the eastern coast.  You know from 'coast'?"

"Coast.   Land ends-water begin.  Yes."

"Good.   Steer South/Southeast from there.   You'll find a town full of a lot of self important people and a shitload o' marble monuments.  Plenty-plenty 'leaders' in that town."

"Matt" and his sidekick had another rapid-fire conversation.  "You come with us," said "Matt".

"Like hell," I replied.   "I have to answer the door when Comcast gets here.   I'll have hell to pay getting the divots out o' my lawn tomorrow.   I hope you're gone before my neighbors get home."

"If you not come with us, we will-" - he turned to K'Khan for the word - "destroy - all your leaders.  All your-" - again; he asked for help - "talk-people."

"Talk people?", I said, looking puzzled.

"Those who talk to you and give you news."

"All of 'em?", I said.

"All.  Leaders too.  None left.   You be - sorry."

I started laughing.

"No, I won't," I said, still laughing.   "Do names like 'Rush Limbaugh', 'Glenn Beck', and 'Sean Hannity' mean anything?  'Ann Coulter', 'Gary Gatehouse'?  Start with them, all right?    What kind of weapons do you have in that thing?   Can you blow Washington, D.C. away?  I mean, for real?"

"We can.  We will.  All gone."

I turned for the house, still laughing.   Over my shoulder, I said, "Have at it.   I'll hold you to it.   Do not disappoint me."

The ramp whined as it retracted.   The wheezing and clanking began, and the ship effortlessly climbed upward and disappeared into the eastern sky.


_________________________________________

(Submitted for your approval, a bit of whimsy - a polemic against the concept of 'bad aliens' - regardless of their origin - and that the biggest disasters may well be blessings in disguise....)

"The Skye, Black With Arrowes" -- Crispin's Day (The Battle of Agincourt)

Today is the 594th anniversary of the Battle of Agincourt.

While most of us are well-aware of the conflict if we stayed awake in ninth-grade history, I thought I'd add a few comments of my own.

Agincourt was the result of Henry's decision to invade France and attempt to take the French crown - his claim as one of the descendants of the Normans who conquered England in 1066 being his casus belli.

Having raised an army of around 10,000 effectives, Henry sailed from England in early October to northern France.   He laid siege to the port-city of Harfleur, taking it in mid-October and leaving a small garrison there to keep the peace.   (It was during this siege that his army, having gathered mussles and crabs at the seashore which had been infected with the effluvia from the city's sewer-canals, took ill in droves with dysentery).
 
Henry resolved to march on Paris.   He took his army northeast along the French coast, crossing the Bethune and Breste rivers while the French advance-guard shadowed him to the south.  In the meantime, the French king (Charles VI) attempted to organize a defense.
 
(Charles was widely considered at the time to be insane, but likely suffered from late-stage Alzheimer's dementia.  As a result, the French were unable to raise more than 40,000 men to challenge Henry, with a more realistic number being nearer to 30,000).
 
By this time, Henry's attempted crossing of the Somme near the coast had been blocked by 6,000 troops of Charles' advance-guard.   Henry's ill and starving 'band of brothers' were reduced to around 7,000 effectives, the baggage-train '...carryinge more ille than baggage...."   They marched south along the Somme seeking a place to ford, and found a spot offering both cover and a fordable-spot at the town of Voyennes.
 
By this time, Henry knew that his only chance was to make the port-city of Calais, and make for home.   His army was combat-ineffective against the defenses of Paris; he was faced with over 150 miles of hard marching in mud and rain before reaching the coast.
 
They marched some 75 miles to the north before Henry's scouts encountered the main body of the French army just south of the village of Agincourt.   The French heralds (messengers) issued a formal challenge-of-battle.   Henry was in no position to do anything but agree.

The night before the battle, Henry's army consisted of around 6,000 yeomen (commoners, armed with longbows and light weapons), plus around 1,000 knights and 'men-of-name'.   The French army was around 30,000; 10,000 of these being knights and named-individuals, with the rest being conscripted commoners and other ranks.
 
The French took up position in a plowed field, with dense forest on either side.    Henry was at the opposite end, where the forest formed a 'v'.   He ordered each man to cut and shape long stakes, sharpened at both ends.The next morning, Henry moved his army to within 200-250 yards (extreme bowshot) of the French lines.   He ordered the stakes driven into the earth at a 45-degree angle facing the French lines - this; to break any possible cavalry-charge by mounted knights.
 
Placing his knights in the center of the line along with dismounted men-at-arms and his archers on the flanks, Henry awaited the French.

In the late morning of the 25th, the French (under the command of Charles d'Albret) ordered a general advance.    The outcome, in retrospect, was predictable - French knights, capable of moving at no faster than around 12 miles per hour in order to keep their cavalry-lines intact, were the victim of English longbows (a competent longbowman could loose ten 'flights' per minute).   While the effect on armor at that range was minimal, the effect on horses was terrifying - wounded horses began to panic, and the charge was broken before they reached the impenetrable stake barrier.
 
The French advance was, by all measure, broken before they reached Henry's lines.
 
Those who were not thrown from their horses (or killed by the more-powerful longbow volleys as they grew closer) had to deal with having their mounts impaled by Henry's stakes.   Those who managed to reach the lines found that the longbowmen and other men-at-arms had two main weapons - a war-hammer (the head of which was a large hammer-head on one end, and a long spike on the other); plus a double-bladed knife (called 'tongs').   While what happened next defied the code of chivalry (men-of-name were supposed to be taken prisoner and ransomed), Henry's orders on this day reflected the necessity of defeating the French and getting his men on one piece to Calais.

Henry had ordered all but the senior nobility killed.

Accomplishing this was a swift-but-brutal affair; if standing; a swift crack to the helmet with the hammer took the man down; if lying in the mud, the spike-end of the hammer served to hook his armor and roll him over on his back.   At that point, the knife was thrust through the eye-slit of his helmet - at which point, the good English yeoman went on to his next victim.
 
The fury of this action - the entire battle lasted less than an hour - gave rise to a saying which meant 'going at something with a ferocity' - literally; 'going at it hammer-and-tongs'.
 
The French were not able to exact many casualties for their efforts.   The best accounts list around 100 English casualties, with the French losing between 7,000-15,000 (an accurate account was not possible - complete skeletons to this day are found in the field, dating from that time).  Further, Henry's orders to take the senior nobility as prisoners had a devastating effect which even Henry could not have predicted - the 1,500 men taken back to England after Henry destroyed the French army at Agincourt literally represented half the French nobility - deprived of a support base, Charles VI could no longer raise taxes, let alone an army.   Most of these men could no longer ransom themselves, and never returned to France.
 
Henry reached Calais on the 29th, where he sailed for home.   The result of the campaign was of little effect; Henry achieved a port at Harfleur, but little real territory, and he died of natural causes before he could mount another campaign to achieve his real goal of taking Paris and claiming the French crown.
 
While the truth of the fight was far different, Agincourt also gave us the most memorable speech in the English language, penned by William Shakespeare less than two hundred years after the battle:
_______________________________
 

What's he that wishes so?
My cousin Westmoreland?
No, my fair cousin;
If we are mark'd to die, we are enough
To do our country loss; and if to live,
The fewer men, the greater share of honour.

God's will! I pray thee, wish not one man more.
Rather proclaim it, Westmoreland, through my host,
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.

This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.

He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian.'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispian's day.'

Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day.
Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red!

This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-

We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;

And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day!

"In The Legions Lie The Power" - Soldier Worship and Worshipping Soldiers - America's New Order

Military Theocracy - Coming To An America Near You

An Insular Military...

"In legio recubo auctorita est" - an old Roman saying, and a bit of gallows-humor; toward the end of the empire, thinking Romans saw that the legions, far from being a loyal part of the governmental structure, had morphed into a power of their own - insular; bound to separate loyalties and increasingly separated from and disdainful of the civilians they were ostensibly sworn to protect.

The notion of 'empire' had decayed to the simple understanding that if a legion could be deployed to protect a piece of ground, that ground was Rome.   Everything else was 'barbarian'.   Often, the legions were feared more than the barbarians in remote provinces - in fact, large landowners simply employed barbarian levies to protect them - sometimes from the legions themselves.   These large estates on the frontier became so self-sufficient that they turned away Roman tax collectors - and became the foundation for feudal Europe in the dark and middle ages.

While I'm sure some of you already know where this is going, I'd be remiss if I didn't include some recent history, as well.

In the early '70's, the United States made the fundamental decision to turn from a conscript-army to a volunteer force.   What our leaders forgot - if they ever knew - was this:   Volunteer forces carry within them a sickness of sorts - they are almost always drawn from working class conservative society, and as such do not reflect society as a whole.   Nations which practice this process eliminate the stress of conscription (never popular), but they also run the risk of creating a military which lacks the values of the society as a whole.

This has never been so evident than it is today.  


Evangelism and Fundamentalism - With An M-16 On Top...

Jeff Sharlet, a correspondent for Harper's Magazine, puts it very well:  "When Barack Obama moved into the Oval Office in January, he inherited a military not just drained by a two-front war overseas but fighting a third battle on the home front, a subtle civil war over its own soul. On one side are the majority of military personnel, professionals who regardless of their faith or lack thereof simply want to get their jobs done; on the other is a small but powerful movement of Christian soldiers concentrated in the officer corps."

He tells a story of a group of soldiers in Iraq, who spray-painted "Jesus Killed Mohammad" on the side of their BFV (Bradley Fighting Vehicle); of a U.S.A.F. Major General (the commandant of the Air Force Academy), who made the National Day of Prayer services at the academy exclusively Christian, and who openly tells evangelical cadets to 'share the gospel'.

That all this flies in the face of both the UCMJ (that's the Uniform Code of Military Justice) and the U.S. Constitution should go without saying - that the military is not only left alone with these actions, but encouraged to do anything which 'improves morale' should be appalling to anyone with any degree of sense.

The military, up to this point, has operated outside of politics and religion, and with good reason - every nation which has allowed its military to engage in either has invariably wound up with people wearing uniforms running the country.   Even the Romans had a law against it; their failure to uphold that law or live to that standard cost them their Republic.

Today, however, we've seen the military undergo a transformation - the past twenty years have drawn a generation, home-schooled by Fundamentalist parents - into its ranks; devoid of any real contact with 'the world' (defined as 'anyone outside the Fundamentalist Christian community') ; these children of the postmodern Christian era have donned their country's uniform for very different reasons.


They Serve Themselves Who Take The Oath....

To them, it is not an obligation to national service - it's a chance to prove to their friends, parents and older siblings that they are willing to 'defend' the America they were brought up to believe could exist again, under the right circumstances - an America devoid of the corrupting influences which have brought about its decay; an America where 'God' was first.

Drawing volunteers from regions which are predominantly rural and with extreme-Conservative Red State values, the current demographics are shocking when examined in the light of day.

While over 80% are self-identified as 'Christian', over 30% of America's military self-identifies as 'Fundamentalist Evangelical'.   Muslims are one in four hundred.   Jews are scarcer still, and at the bottom are the list are atheist/agnostic, at less than one half of one percent.

This was recently brought home to me in a conversation with someone online. He served in the U.S. Marine Corps, with two tours in Iraq. I asked him what he thought of the war; he was in favor of it - and thought that 'destroying Islam' was a good idea 'while we were at it.'

I expressed horror at that idea - and he replied, "I didn't put on the uniform for you.  I put it on for me, and mine."

It was very evident to me who 'his' people were - fellow Fundamentalist Evangelicals.


The U.S. Constitution - An Inconvenient Truth....

This attitude is reflected in the highest levels of the American military.    The Officer's Christian Fellowship (founded during WWII and concerned primarily with the spiritual well-being of military officers for several decades), recently stated that "...if Satan cannot succeed with threats from the outside, he will seek to destroy from within."    Today, the OCF views its mission as a twofold-objective:   Bringing America 'back to God' - beginning with ensuring that the military is first converted, and converted to a Fundamentalist form of Christianity.

Most believe that the notion of 'separation of church and state' doesn't exist - and the senior officers are using America's military academies as a means of spreading that gospel-of-a-revisionist-Constitution.   Little mention of the First Amendment is made there - in fact, many senior officers either plead ignorance or confusion when the twin-concepts of the Establishment Clause and the Free Exercise Clause are mentioned in conversation.

For the "God Soldiers", a constitutional republic isn't enough.   They want a theocracy.


Aryans; Nazis; Fundies - All One Big, Happy Family....

There's a malevolent side to this - far beyond the idea of an insular military which increasingly views Civilian America as The Enemy.  

With the advent of the War on Terror, a segment of society which embraces Christianity and which dislikes Islam has found a new home - wearing the uniform of one of the four branches of the U.S. armed forces.

Recruiters have found that Aryans, neo-Nazis and other extremists are fertile ground for recruiting, even though the official stance is that these people are not suitable candidates.   The military doesn't escalate many investigations beyond the unit commander's level - oftentimes a late-twentysomething captain whose biggest concern is maintaining a full complement of personnel, not worrying about the content of the individual's character.

The increase in extremists in the military has shown up in places like Baghdad and Kabul, where Aryan Nations and anti-Arab/anti-Muslim graffiti have sprouted like mushrooms after a spring rain.   Dealing with the problem is nearly impossible, with troop-strength the main concern.   Militia movements are gaining ground in America for the first time since the '90's; steeped in the 'God/guts/guns' philosophy of the extreme right, they've drawn most of their new members from former American military personnel.


Connecting the Dots....

America is now in a dangerous position.   Our military is now more aligned with extremist elements than with the majority of the country.   Half the nation engages in outright-worship of the American Soldier; in fact, stating that you have reservations about the current conflicts in which we are engaged will garner you names - like 'Obama-lover', 'libtard', 'socialist', or worse.   In my own case, I've been 'asked' - albeit politely - if I wouldn't be happier living in another country, where the 'belief-system more closely reflected my own.'

This sort of exclusionary-thinking is common to extremists of all stripes - it's the sort of thing which sent people to camps and gas-chambers by the millions in Europe about seventy years ago, and that sort of thinking has taken root here in America - because, as they're quick to point out - it's not bad when we do it, and when 'God' tells us it's all right.


The economy is circling the drain, and shows no real signs of stopping.   The next 15 months are going to tell the tale; we'll either fix it or we'll have civil unrest like we haven't seen since the American Civil War. 

The military will then be in a position to take center-stage.   They're convinced that America has 'strayed' - and that it needs to be 'taken back', ostensibly to a time when everyone was a Christian, and where 'Christian values' were the standard by which America operated.  

Their handmaidens, the half of America's civilians which offer them adulation and worship, are all too willing to allow troops in the streets, if they'll 'restore America to greatness.'   That this has massive implications for the future of America and the rest of the world also goes without saying.

"A soldier without discipline is but a brigand," said Marcus Aurelius.   In the legions, lie the power.  

_______________________________________

Reading:

"The Crusade for a Christian Military" (Jeff Sharlet; Harper's Magazine - May; 2009)

"Religion in the Military" ('Fault Lines' - June; 2009 [YouTube video]

"Return of the Militias" (Southern Poverty Law Center - August; 2009)

"A Few Bad Men" (David Holthouse; Southern Poverty Law Center - July; 2006)

"Dozens of Active-Duty Troops Found On Neo-Nazi Sites" (Kevin Baron; Stars and Stripes - July; 2009)

"Top Ten Ways To Convince Muslims We're On A Religious Crusade" (Chris Rodda; The Public Record - September; 2009)

An Economy at Crush-Depth (Update)

With the stock market closing over 10,000 yesterday, I thought it was a good time to review my prior article on the economy, and to outline where we're likely to be in a year.   Again, the facts are a remorseless beast, and my conclusions do not share the enthusiasm of several market pundits who are calling for a recovery next year.

The two months since my last post on this topic have, if anything, solidified my position.

First, a recap - back in August, I provided you all with a brief history on how we got here in the first place, and some of the dynamics of the credit-crunch, plus the reactions of the government first under Bush, then Obama - and why those reactions were akin to fighting a fire with gasoline.

Summer is over.   Fourth quarter is upon us; it should be the most-robust of the four, with both consumer spending due to America's holiday-season and the tax-incentive-based end-of-year-purchasing done by corporations.   We're seeing some mixed signals - by all predictions, end of year purchasing in both sectors is going to be lackluster - but the stock markets and certain commodities are actually increasing.

While there are stated reasons for these increases, the real reasons are actually chilling to me.   I'll review both the stated and the real, below.


Stocks

Not long ago, I was in a gun-shop.  The owner is in his 70's; he's a bit of a Renaissance-man who, while he never went to college, reads voraciously.  He and I have discussed the finer points of a Charleville musket vs. the British Brown-Bess; his is a shop where the smell of pipe-tobacco, coffee, and Hoppes #2 Gun-Lube all mix to form an aroma as heady as the conversation.

There was a fellow in his shop looking at an 1870 Colt revolver - the genuine article; not a reproduction.   Price?   $2,950.00; firm.

While he was looking, the proprietor and I were ruminating over the fact that in 1870, the general-store which originally sold the pistol probably asked $25.00 for it, and threw in some supplies, as well.

The potential buyer looked over at me and said, "Yeah - real ripoff today, huh?"  

The store-owner and I both grinned at each other.   I looked back and said, "Nope.  In fact, if anything, that pistol is money in the bank.   It's not the pistol that's worth more nowadays - it's the dollar, that's worth less."

This anecdote should serve us well as we review things.

Stocks are a reflection of two things - optimism in the future of the company which issues the security, and the relative value of the dollar.   Stock will increase (or decrease) in price based on these two.

Confidence in the American economy is at an all-time low.   The fundamentals of every American corporation are in the toilet by any yardstick.   So, what is driving the price of stock up?

Two words:  Monetary inflation.   Again; as with the pistol - it's not that the stock is worth so much more - it's that the dollar is worth less.


Gold (and other commodities)

You know you've got a bad case of inflation when websites pop up every day via late-night infomercials offering to buy your 'unused gold jewelery', and when the fellow who runs your dry-cleaner has a sign in his store-window saying "Buying or trading your unused gold!"

Gold reached a high of $1,065.00/oz yesterday.   It shows no sign of going lower.  

What's not being reported as widely is the increase in other commodities - silver and copper.   Silver began a steady increase in 2005, interrupted only by the increase in oil prices in 2008.  When oil bottomed late last year, silver resumed its climb (it's now around $15.00/oz). 

Copper tends to follow economic trends.   From a 60-year low in 1999, copper has almost quintupled in price, the world's economic problems notwithstanding.

Again -- we should look to the value of the dollar for an answer here - it's not that these commodities are more valuable -the dollar is losing value.


Dollar

If you've wondered why the house you bought in 1990 on a 15-year mortgage with a payment of $1,000/mo. is unobtainable today under similar terms by your kids, then it's worth taking a look at what's happened to the dollar.

Example:   If you bought an item for $1,000.00 in 1990 - that same item would cost you $1,650.00 and change in 2009 - an increase of 65%.  

This one issue - the continued devaluation of the dollar - should be considered a crisis by our government, but it isn't.   We've continued to print money to pay bills and sell the debt-paper to the Chinese - a process started under Reagan, and continued by every president since.  

Now - consider these facts:

1.    The government has printed $5,000,000,000,000 (trillion) in new money since Obama took office.

2.     The stimulus and buyout programs have exceeded our GDP this year - to the point where collecting taxes at all is a futile effort, as the government simply cannot - and never will - be able to pay the bills associated with these programs.

3.      Because of the first two statements here, the government is bankrupt by any measure.  There's simply no way to repay the loans - the interest alone will 'drown' the government (they can't collect enough in revenues to keep up.)

There's something we should count on seeing, increasingly - signs offering to trade for gold.   Your dry-cleaner isn't the only one who's wise to what's going on.

(In Zimbabwe, people now routinely go into the hills and pan for gold to pay the bills - an ounce will still buy what it did before the government started printing one-trillion-dollar banknotes.    Of course, no one uses them.   One gram of gold buys ten loaves of bread.  An ounce pays for a month's rent.  Zimbabwe's economy has gone almost entirely underground, thanks to the government's insane economic policy of printing money to pay for things, rather than increasing productivity.)

We've learned the lesson well, that a printing-press is easier to implement than sound fiscal policy.   Count on the same outcome.

With the dollar's fall also comes its lack of desirability worldwide.  If the dollar continues its slide, we can count on it losing its reserve-currency status (more on that below, in the 'reading' section).


Employment

This is probably the biggest single indicator of true economic strength, and the biggest reason why we're nowhere near a real recovery - we are still hemmoraging jobs, and will continue to do so well into next year.

We'd do well at this point to consider the economics of the thing, as well as the numbers.

According to the government, 15.1 million people are out of work in America (source:  BLS; Sept. 2009).   This does not take into account the number of people who have been unemployed for longer than six months and/or have ceased looking for work.

If these people are factored in, the true number is around 25 million - or nearly twenty-five percent of the workforce.

Even using the government's official figures, the rate is nearly 17% - not the 9.8% they're trying to feed us.

This number will continue to rise through the bulk of 2010.


Foreclosures

The foreclosure-problem has gone well beyond questionable loans and house-flippers - in fact, it's no longer possible to blame speculators and real-estate agents for the collapse of the housing market.   Real-estate is still in free-fall in most parts of America - the number of mortgages 'underwater' (more owed than the home is worth) is the best proof of this.

In late 2008, one in every 54 homeowners received a foreclosure filing.   In September, that number had climbed to one in every 20 - and with one in every eight mortgages 'underwater' in 2009, and with that number set to increase to one in every two in 2010, we're faced with the unlovely but inevitable prospect of becoming a nation of renters as people abandon their homes in droves, send the keys back to the lender, and go rent an apartment, live with relatives - or hit the street.

One bright spot:  Rental housing will be a growth-industry.


Summation:
 
If we add this up, we have the following:

1.    The dollar is worth 65% less than it was in 1990.   It will continue its slide due to a combination of abysmal internal economic policy and a foreign policy which is very destructive of wealth.

2.    Actual unemployment by government measure is around 17%; real-life unemployment is probably around 25%.   This number will rise through 2010.

3.    Foreclosures will probably peak around one in three homes by the end of 2010, with the number of mortgages showing negative-worth around 50% (one in two) by the end of next year.

4.     Inflation will begin a dramatic increase, starting with oil, as the demand for that commodity increases.   Commodities which are tradeable and portable (gold; silver; copper) are already seeing significant price increases.

5.     Paradoxically, the stock-market will continue to rise until the confidence in America's recovery begins to falter.   This seeming contrary increase is due to inflation; not confidence in the future.

As before, red lights lead to green lights, and green lights lead to an uncertain future.   Remember, the ship will go all the way to the bottom if something isn't done.  Unfortunately, I fear we're past that point.

The current administration has seen fit to sell us - literally - to foreign countries by virtue of Federally-guaranteed debt-paper, and the repayment-math doesn't work (we cannot repay the notes, by any yardstick or measure).   The only thing we can do is to watch the future play out - a future none of us wanted.  

One out of two current homeowners living either in forced-downsizing (apartments or the equivalent) or out on the street, with an unemployment rate of 25% while most of the wealth continues to be concentrated in the hands of a very few are the sort of statistics which cause revolutions.

With our government either blissfully unaware of all this, or incapable of solving it, I fear the worst will raise its head, and soon.
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Additional Reading:

'The Demise of the Dollar' - The Independent (October, 2009)
'Is the Dollar Doomed?' - Market Ticker; (October; 2009)
'On The Margin - Total Unemployment for August, 2009' - Seeking Alpha Newsletter (October; 2009)
'Gold Pushes To Record High; Dollar Weak' - CNN (October; 2009)
'A Financial Revolution' - Robert Fisk; The Independent (October; 2009)
'The Forbes 400 Show Why The Nation Is Falling Apart' - Les Leopold; Huffington Post (October; 2009)
'A New Normal For The World Economy' - The Economist (October; 2009)
'The Tax Drought of 2009' - CNN Money (October; 2009)
'Middle Class Squeeze - The Deep Roots of Social Transformation' - Charles Hughes Smith; Daily Finance (October; 2009)
'The Real News About Jobs and Wages' - Robert Reich; Huffington Post (September; 2009)
'Inflation Calculator' - (Coin News)
'Gold at $5,400' - National Inflation Association (October; 2009)
'Life After the Bubble - From American Dream to American Nightmare' - Portland Oregonian (October; 2009)
'America is Facing a Weimar Moment' - Robert Freeman; Common Dreams (March; 2009)

The REAL Dalai Lama (Or, "Peeing in the Cheerios")

(The Current Lama-Dude)

The Dalai Lama is a Fraud (among other things)

Recently, the online acquaintance of someone in my 'circle' had been singing the praises of the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso.

Now, I'm not a 'phant (syco, or otherwise), and my aversion - and sometimes, outright loathing - of things-religious is well published, here and elsewhere.

In this case, I took it upon myself to point out some of His Lamatude's more-egregious shortcomings - and found my comment deleted, with the terse statement, "No bashing of H.H. The Dalai Lama will be tolerated here."

So much for Cheerios.

I can see keeping one's mouth shut about the Emperor's predeliction for going on-parade sans culotte, especially if he's subsidizing the whole damn empire - I mean, if he's paying my bills, he can walk around claiming invisible clothing all he wants - I promise not to snicker at his shortcomings, as long as I can continue to cash the check.

But when the only thing a person's done is to meditate on the sound of one-hand-clapping while everyone waits on him hand-and-foot, I've a hard time keeping silent about the obvious discrepancies.

Take his early life, for example.

Tibet is full of what I'm fond of calling 'voodoo'.   When the last Lama died, monks gathered and went searching for a place with blue-tiled roofs - that was the 'vision' of the last Lama regarding the location of his successor.

(See, Lama-ness isn't hereditary.   You can't inherit being His Lama-tude.   To be the Head Lama Guy, you have to be 'envisioned'; then found.   It can take years.   In this case, they tracked down a small house with blue tile roofs and picked a small boy from his family -- evidently, having your children kidnapped by monks is a great honor in Tibet -- took him to the capital in Lhasa, and began his 'education'.)

'Education', in Lama-ese, means being cut off from the rest of the world - no radio; no outside news; no influence of any kind - you get to read old textbooks written by other Lamas, and learn about the Manifold Path.  

(My Thunderbird had a cracked manifold once -- it was the right one, which made it a bitch to replace, because the 292CID-V8 came standard with one - two were only installed on Thunderbirds, which meant that the second one was hideously expensive - but I digress).

Tibet - and especially the capital, Lhasa - is a study in economic contrast - on one hand, you have an uberelite of monks and Lamas, who run the show and get waited on, while the faceless masses live in grinding poverty and support the monks.   It works just fine - for those who are privileged enough to wear robes and give orders.

This sort of seclusion might make good Lamas - but it doesn't make for good judgment.   The current Dalai Lama proved this in the late 1930's when, still a boy, the Dalai Lama was visited by representatives from the National Socialist government of Germany.





The Nazis wasted no time importing about a dozen Tibetan monks to Berlin, convinced there was an Aryan 'connection' - a missing-link of sorts between Tibet and Nazi Germany.  The first expedition to Tibet in 1938 by Ernst Schaefer cemented relations with both the Lama and the greater government of Tibet which lasted on a personal level until well after the war.

Heinrich Harrer was a member of the Waffen-SS and a death-squad leader.   In spite of the warm-fuzzies connected with the film "Seven Years in Tibet",  Harrer's efforts through the war years in Tibet were aimed at encouraging the Tibetan government to support Nazi efforts against India.

Yet another SS officer who spent time as a politico-military envoy to Tibet was Bruno Beger.  Beger split his time between Lhasa and Auschwitz, where he assisted Josef Mengele with medical experiments.

This sort of thing goes splendidly unreported, including the Head Lama's affinity for dressing up in Nazi uniforms in his early years.  

Since the Chinese drove him out in 1959, he's spent his time traveling the world with his retinue - a pale shadow of what once served him - telling the world that it suffers from too much greed - and, by the way, please-please-please let me go back home so I can live like a Lama should....

He's never repudiated his coziness with the Nazis - in fact, he remained fast friends with Beger and Harrer until Harrer's death in 1992 (Beger now lives near Frankfurt, age 92, with his collection of Tibetan masks still on his wall.   Beger's expressed no regrets for what he did, having received a three-year suspended sentence in the '70's for his 'work' at Auschwitz).

(The Chinese - in spite of their own shortcomings - have abolished servitude to the Lamas, also introducing modern medical care, education, running water, sewage-treatment and electricity to Tibet.)

__________________________

(I'd be happy to listen to someone who at least claims to be older and wiser than I - especially if he'd lived a long and productive life and had some form of accomplishment to show for it.   Being waited on hand and foot; living on donations; wagging a finger and saying "Too much greed!", before being driven to the next photo-op doesn't constitute a productive life.   If he'd held a job and balanced a checkbook, I'd be willing to listen.  As it is, he's just a case of arrested mental development and naivete.)

Obama and the Peace Prize....

Real Hope, or Chocolate Bars?



How to Win a Nobel Prize In 12 Days....

Unless you've been under a rock this morning, you're aware that president Obama was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize today - only the fourth American president to be so-honored.

While I'm happy as an American that one of our own was given this prize, there's a vague sense of unease in the back of my mind about this.

Just as Willy Wonka, from a troubled childhood-made-good, busied himself making children all over the world happy, my fear is that the world is now still expecting president Obama to retain the mantle of Saviour-in-Chief, when it's become apparent he's just a human being.

The official statement recognizes Obama for "...extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples."   The committee's statement continued, "Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world's attention and given its people hope for a better future."

As with Wonka, the story is just a bit surreal.

Nominations were due on February 1st - which was only a few days after Obama had taken office.   While everyone had great expectations, we had no idea what the man would actually do.   In a great many ways, we still don't - many of his actions have actually imitated those of his predecessor; his failure to roll back the MCA and the Patriot Act, along with the raft of 'presidential directives' and executive orders which have, among other things, circumvented the Constitution, have left many of his most-ardent supporters confused and disappointed.

We can throw in his failure to close the detention-camp at Guantanamo, his failure to demand an audit of other facilities known to house prisoners of America's 'War on Terrorism', and his abysmal handling of the economy.

On the other hand, we have a trip to Cairo to tell the Muslim world that no matter what, they should ignore the bombs, bullets, and occupation - we Really Do Care.   

Meanwhile, a member of the Committee who agreed to an interview on the basis of anonymity said, "It’s like putting a gold star on a student’s paper, or giving him the ‘most improved’ trophy when he makes a good effort."  Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the committee, said he "hoped the prize would help Obama resolve the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan."

This sounds to me like the 'everyone's a winner' philosophy of team-sports in American schools nowadays - no one loses; everyone gets to 'win' something.

Only this time, it's not a gold star - it's a Nobel Peace Prize, which ought to mean something.

Instead, during Obama's first 11 days in office, his most visible accomplishments were the inagural ball (Michelle's dress was, by any stretch, awesome), and his Super Bowl party.  

I'll add that he also reaffirmed the Army Field Manual for interrogations.  Not much 'peace' in that act.


So, like Willie Wonka, America's new president is now expected to spread sunshine and peace throughout the world.

That vague uneasiness?  

It's the realization that the world isn't a peaceful place - and that a lot of those problems were caused by America.   It's the realization that 'Yes, We Can' is a good thought - but it has to be backed with some serious effort - effort that requires more than chocolate bars and hope.