...Being a Short Discussion on the Subject of Secession....
"History is indeed little more than the register of the crimes, follies, and misfortunes of mankind."
-- Edward Gibbon; Historian
I've been considering this topic for a while now - and since I have no conclusions, I'm going to make a few statements of fact - then open this one up for what I hope will be a healthy discussion.
America teeters on the edge of becoming a failed state; in that, it takes company with a lot of other failed states, among them being elegant and accomplished affairs like Rome, and broke-dick organizations like Yugoslavia.
We can argue the reasons, but they boil down to simple answers to the question, "You know your country has failed/your empire has fallen/your government is like a broke-dick-dog when _____________":
1. National defense becomes national aggrandizement. (Starting a war half a world away on false pretenses, using a force of half-mercenaries and half-unmotivated youth certainly qualifies here. Our military overstretch, based on a deluded desire to be the world's policeman, is draining our treasury and getting us nowhere).
2. The economy has been systematically driven into the ground. (Spending more than we have for over thirty years, monetizing the debt first with borrowed, then with printed money qualifies here).
3. Health care, shelter, food, education - are all a matter of luck. (Having a health-care system which ranks #37 in the world - behind nations like Morocco; a child-welfare ranking of #20 out of #21 by the U.N., and an education rank of #19 out of #40 - certainly qualifies us here).
4. Environmental degradation is policy. (The average American child will consume 300% of the resources of his second and third-world counterparts. We're 5% of the world's population, and consume 32% of its resources. Do the math, folks.)
5. Domestic dissent is inevitable. (This is not to be confused with 'treason'. Widespread domestic dissent is caused by the other items here on the list, not by people who are 'confused', 'deluded', or otherwise 'disloyal'.)
6. Finally, internal repression is a given. (There's enough evidence of recent wholesale-runs on the Constitution, combined with government 'preparations' for domestic unrest, to qualify us here, too.) These six problems are usually represented by some very unlovely symptoms - an unequal division of wealth, caused by internal corruption, which sets the stage for What Comes Next.
___________________________________________
When these six things happen, there's usually only one course of action left - the disintegration of the State. While revolt is a possibility, and while internecine warfare is likely (even probable), I don't see this happening as a national conflict, which occurred between the two belligerents in 1861.
I see this as a 'Balkanization' of America, with the secession of multiple nation-states within North America. However, before we start redrawing the U.S. map into several sections, we should probably ask ourselves, "Is all this real, or the exercise of a too-creative mind?" I've done a little modest digging over the past few weeks, and have come to the conclusion that it's altogether too real - and, in fact, likely.
Here's one scenario to whet your appetite for discussion. I'm sure you can think of others:
The U.S. is already monetizing debt - that means that it's not longer engaging in the niceties of bond-sales - it's literally creating money and buying its own Treasury bills - in effect, printing $2 trillion dollars in brand-new, unsupportable currency. This will lead to hyperinflation - perhaps not immediately, but within the not-too-distant future (Note: I'll allow an opposing argument - the fact that our currency enjoys the status of the world's reserve currency - which, if allowed to continue by the world's other major trading-nations, would likely prevent a hyperinflationary scenario, but rather a long, slow decline of the dollar.)
One of these scenarios is a virtual certainty - the only question is how the government intends to deal with the problem. Because producers (everyone from farmers to manufacturing companies) will find that it costs more to produce a crop and bring it to market than the crop is worth, they'll either cease production and try to ride things out, or they'll begin accepting payment in other means - barter, or something of intrinsic value (gold or silver, for example).
In turn, this will grind the larger economy to a halt (the local Safeway won't have lettuce, but if you're willing to part with Grandma's ring, you can buy produce from a local farmer). People who are forced to accept 'legal tender' (national currency) for their labor will have to spend it that day to keep from losing its value, if a hyperinflationary scenario comes to pass.
When the pain of maintaining the status-quo exceeds the pain of changing the government, the national fabric will come apart - looting will replace production, because the risk of 'three hots and a cot' in a detention camp will be less than the risk of starving. Power will 'lay in the streets', and the capacity of the government to control the problem will be overwhelmed by the sheer size of it all -- even if we pulled our 600,000-odd troops home from every battlefield, they would not be enough to control 370 million Americans who were bent on staying alive.
Somewhere along this timeline, visionaries in every region of America are going to come up with the notion that they can do this better themselves. At this point, the United States becomes much like the old Soviet Union - an artificially-drawn construct, unsupportable at a national level - the country would come apart by region, and re-found their own economies based on local production. Currencies would be printed, and economies would begin to get back on their feet (again, on a regional basis).
That's only one scenario. You can think of others, I'm sure.
______________________________________
Regional and state-sovereignty movements have been quietly growing in the U.S. for over ten years. At the end, I'm providing links to some of them.
In one state (Texas), there are several - while a couple of them offer well-reasoned polemics/apologetics, most offer commentary regarding 'god given rights', and a variant of theocracy as a legal standard. Ten separate states (Washington; New Hampshire; Arizona; Montana; Michigan; Missouri; Oklahoma; California, and Georgia) have either introduced or have planned to introduce bills in their respective legislatures regarding state-sovereignty.
These bills would, if passed, allow (but not require) the respective State to exercise perceived Tenth Amendment rights (in theory, allowing the State to remain a part of the Federal union, but also to refuse participation in Federal programs and to cease certain transfer-payments to the Federal government).
Thoughts, everyone? Are we ready to Balkanize America, (to split up into separate autonomous regions/nations?)
Would a Commonwealth serve us better at this point, or not?
______________________________
Reading:
1. Texas Secession Movement (links to secessionist organizations. Note: Some are radical; others are clearly home-made sites with a distinct lack of critical thought, as well as very bad grammar and spelling).
2. Republic of Cascadia (Cascadian Independence Project. Part joke; part sovereignty movement, the Northwest has entertained the concept of secession since the 1930's [see 'State of Jefferson' link, below])
3. Middlebury Institute (a think-tank of secessionist and sovereignty researchers, headquartered in New York)
4. Tenth Amendment Center (discussion and clearinghouse of various Tenth Amendment/Secession/Sovereignty sites, articles, and other info. [Note: Many of these are serious conspiracy-theorists. It's up to you to sort out the tinfoil-hatters from the more-objective]).
7. State of Jefferson (The granddaddy of sovereignty/secession movements in the 20th and 21st century, this was originally a proposal to create a 51st state - now; there are many who believe it should be a separate country. Some interesting secession/Tenth Amendment arguments here, too).